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“So there’s no engine block, no intake manifold, no exhaust manifold, no muffler, no spark plugs, no spark plug wires, no distributor cap, no…” when he cut me off and said “Correct. None of those. And about a hundred or so more parts you haven’t listed yet.”

What I also said that day was “I wonder what the Big 3 will come out with to compete with it?” Seven years later we are just starting to find out.

I am concerned my fellow Metro Detroiter that we are screwed. Ford, GM, and Chrysler (Stellantis) waited too long to get into the electric car game and all three are going bankrupt or will be a shell of the company they are today by 2028.

In turn, this will bankrupt Metro Detroit.

I’ve read and watched many articles and videos about Tesla from a investing and manufacturing point of view this past year with titles like “Tesla Will Bankrupt The Big 3”.

I think they are right.

Two videos stick out the most.

Your Move OEMs…Who Will Survive by Sandy Munro of Munro & Associates in Auburn Hills.

Future Of Transportation by Tony Seba from RethinkX.

If you have not been paying attention to Tesla I’ll do my best to bring you up to speed.

Tesla Model 3 is the best selling vehicle (gas or electric) in Europe. #2 in the UK. Model Y might be top 5 in US in 2022. They have a three month to one year long waiting list on their cars.

Tesla Energy is ramping up. Tesla Insurance is getting started. AI/Robots too.

They resemble Apple more than Ford. They are a “you might as well” company. As in, “you might as well buy the car, solar panels, and Powerwall to store your energy.”

Tesla is taking on the Automotive, Energy, Roofing, and Insurance industries. You could say the Government too.

Tesla sold 35,000 vehicles worldwide in 2014. They sold 936k vehicles worldwide in 2021. Estimates are 1.6 million in 2022 as two new factories (Texas and Berlin) go online in 2022.

Big 3 will be lucky to make 1 million electric vehicles combined by 2024. There will be over 4 million Tesla’s on the road by then.

The only reason why the Big 3 are going electric is because of Tesla.

What About Metro Detroit?

All the videos and articles compared Tesla to the Big 3. Barely a mention of the workers and cities the Big 3 are in.

My attention turned to my fellow Metro Detroiters who work for the Big 3 and parts suppliers. Dad retired from Ford. My two uncles retired from GM.

How many people work for these companies? What wages do they bring to MD?

What about all the UAW Retirees whose pensions are paid with profits from the Big 3? No profits. No pensions.

What would that do to city and county government budgets in Metro Detroit?

I started looking stuff up.

Direct Jobs

Ford, GM, and Chrysler employ 90,603 people combined at 28 locations in Metro Detroit at an average annual salary of $60,000.

Indirect Jobs

Parts Supplier Jobs and Induced Jobs.

95 of North Americas largest parts suppliers have addresses in Metro Detroit. GM works with 1,985 parts suppliers in Michigan. 712k people work in auto jobs in Michigan.

Each Big 3 automotive job supports 7 indirect jobs (3 supplier jobs and 4 induced).

Lets say 660 companies are in Metro Detroit and all 271,809 employees (90,603 Big 3 jobs x 3) earn $60,000 annually.

Induced Jobs are retail, restaurant, teachers, Doctors, cops, garbage men, etc. I gave all 362,412 employees (90,603 Big 3 jobs x 4) a $40,000 annual salary.

UAW Pensions

UAW says there are 580,000 retired members worldwide. I’m assuming 20,000 still live in Metro Detroit and get $15,000 a year in pension.

Here we go.

$36.5 Billion in wages

744k employees

6,520 locations

All supported by the auto industry in Metro Detroit.

There would be no coming back if all of that went away.

There’s more.

Robotaxi

All Tesla’s made since 2017 have cameras that have collected over a billion miles worth of real world data building their full self driving platform. If you added up what the Big 3 have done with their autonomous partners it would not come close to Tesla.

Tony Seba is predicting you will not own a car within ten years of the government allowing autonomous cars. It will not make economic sense to own one.

This is what I’m looking towards.

He estimates an average family spends $9000 a year on transportation. With Robotaxis (Transportation As A Service – TaaS) you’ll spend $3400 a year on a subscription service with Tesla, Ford, etc. Annual transportation savings of $5600 ($466 per month). A huge raise.

And because of that the following things will no longer be needed in Metro Detroit.

The Detroit Auto Dealers Association (hates Tesla because they do not have dealerships) represents 200 dealerships from all brands. Estimate 75 employees at each dealer.

Searched “Oil Change Shops near Metro Detroit”, etc. in Google Maps. Subtracted 5 pages of results to keep it conservative.

Estimated 5 or 6 people worked at the rest of the places and salaries.

$1.296 Billion in lost wages

27,042 employees

2,228 locations.

All gone within ten years of Robotaxis being approved. Some sooner with electric cars.

Totally Totals

Big 3 + Parts Suppliers + Robotaxi locations x 2 for Induced Jobs locations.

$37 Billion in annual wages gone.

771,866 jobs lost.

8748 locations abandoned.

Land Bonanza

Tony Seba says Robotaxis will create a “land bonanza”. A real estate boom due to not needing everything listed above. We could knock down those things and build new houses, apartments, or green spaces. Parking lots will not be needed either.

Sounds great for crowded cities like New York, Chicago, or San Francisco. Metro Detroit isn’t crowded. We’re spaced out.

There are 40 square miles (Disney World) of abandoned land just in Detroit. There isn’t a lot of large vacant parcels as the city was built for 2 million people in the 60s. Its now at 600k. There’s a lot of stuff laying around between other stuff.

How much land bonanza in Metro Detroit are we talking about if all of those factories, Robotaxi affected, and indirect jobs go away?

Big 3 list how many acres each location takes up. Estimated 10 acres for each parts suppliers location. One acre for each Robotaxi and induced job location.

We are looking at a “land bonanza” 3/4 the size of Disney World just in Metro Detroit.

None of this includes the already vacant industrial complexes in Warren, Mt. Clemens, and other cities. We could potentially have two Disney Worlds of abandoned land in Metro Detroit.

What If…

Half of this happened? Or a quarter? Or an eighth?

2,300,000 WF is current MD workforce.

Would 96k people losing their jobs at roughly the same time be enough to sack Metro Detroit?

Deep Thoughts

What industry as large as the auto industry is moving in and taking over those buildings?

Who’s retooling these places?

Who’s spending millions of dollars to clean up these places?

Don’t we already have hundreds of empty factories laying around?

Will Tesla buy out one of the Big 3 or parts suppliers?

Who’s coming to save the Big 3? Tesla is the #1 company for Engineers to work at. SpaceX is #2. Ford is #12. GM is #15. Chrysler didn’t make the top 30.

Who’s buying all of the gas powered Big 3 cars (21.5% of their biz) being leased in 2021/22 when leases are up in 2024/25 in the used car market? Gas powered cars will be worthless.

(By then, people will have learned electric cars have near zero maintenance and operating costs. In turn, millions of gas powered lease turn ins will go un-sold resulting in massive financial losses for the Big 3.)

Are the people who financed a gas powered car on a 7 year loan in 2019/20/21/22 through Ford Credit, GM Financial, or Chrysler Capital going to continue making payments in 2024 when they realize the ownership benefits of an electric car outweigh gas and that the resale value of their gas powered car is $0?

And if they don’t continue paying wouldn’t that result in millions of gas powered cars being taken back by the financial arms of the Big 3? Wouldn’t those cars also go unsold? And wouldn’t that mean TENS OF BILLIONS of dollars in financial losses for the Big 3?

***Do not buy a new gas powered car. In 2025 it will be worth as much as the 20 year old VCR I have in a box in my basement. It will still work. But you’ll have to give it away at a garage sale as no one will want to buy it.***

What if 50,000 homes go up for sale at the same time due to job losses? Who’s moving in? Its gray and cold six months out of the year here.

What if 10,000 homes go into foreclosure? At $3,000 annually in property taxes that’s $30,000,000 in lost annual revenue. Can local governments in Metro Detroit survive without it?

Would cities survive knowing they have to lower property taxes as values drop?

Would the people who bought houses in 2021 at inflated prices stay in their homes even though they are severely underwater?

The savings from not owning a car with Robotaxis ($5600 annually) will not happen at the same time as electric cars. Is that future savings enough for people to ride it out?

Will the organizations who gave Detroit $800 million (Grand Bargain) during the bankruptcy give them $800 million again? Fool me once…

Will the artwork the DIA kept now have to be sold if they don’t get another Grand Bargain?

Dare I ask. Would Jobbie Nooner still go on?

Most importantly. Would the Ford family sell the Detroit Lions to save their company?

We’ve got a lot of stuff going on here.

Well We Can Build Electric Vehicles Too

This is what my uncle (retired GM employee) said when I mentioned Tesla a couple of years ago. He is right. GM built the Bolt and Hummer.

The problem is they are not going electric like Tesla. Three differences stick out.

1. Gigapress – One Gigapress replaces 300 robots and drops the cost of each chassis by 40%. IDRA in Italy makes them. Tesla has years worth of orders. Big 3 couldn’t get one for a couple of years.
2. Marketing – Tesla spends $0 on advertising, marketing, promotion, and public relations. Big 3 EACH spend $2 Billion a year.

3. R&D – Tesla spends almost $3,000 per vehicle.

If the Big 3 want to survive they will have to copy what Tesla is doing. How else are they going to compete on costs?

Each company spent $20 Billion on advertising the last decade. At $5 Billion a piece, each company could have built two Gigafactories instead of advertising.

Every Advertising/Marketing/Public Relations job for the Big 3 will be the first to go. I’m guessing many are in Metro Detroit.

And they will have to buy many Gigapresses. Which replaces robots and people. Many of which are in Metro Detroit.

Collapse Is A Process. Not An Event.

Chrysler is saying 40% electric by 2024. GM all electric by 2035. Ford says 50% electric by 2030.

None of those will work. They need to be 100% electric today.

But they can’t.

Mostly because they waited too long. And also because they have to continue selling profitable gas powered cars to limit the amount of money they need to borrow to fund the electric transition.

This is known as the Osborne Effect. 2% of the Big 3’s sales are electric. 98% are gas.

Just because Tesla pulled off mass producing electric cars does not mean the Big 3 will pull off mass producing electric cars. Tesla almost went bankrupt themselves a few times.

Ford, GM, and Chrysler are essentially starting brand new companies with a hundred years worth of baggage. And going up against a company that has a ten year head start with no baggage.

Tesla will build and sell 2 million cars a year by 2023. Maybe 4 million by 2025. Those customers are not coming back to the Big 3.

Big 3 cannot afford to lose more market share.

Maybe Toyota, VW, or a combo of other automakers mess up their transition to electric (or goes bankrupt first) and customers buy Big 3 electric vehicles.

But it does nothing to stop the loss of manufacturing jobs at the Big 3 and suppliers as there are still not as many parts that go into electric cars.

There’s about 18 moving parts in an electric car. There’s hundreds in a gas powered car.

Job losses are inevitable.

The 2008 recession was about debt. Yes, auto jobs were lost. Once the debt was liquidated things got back up and running. Cars were built the same way.

This is a structural change to how we live. Not a debt cycle. There is no long term future for many of those jobs.

Once charging stations are built. (Tesla has 30k). Once chargers are installed in garages. Once Kroger has a solar powered charging station in the parking lot. All of the concerns with going electric will cease to exist.

And who’s waiting there? Tesla.

What started the 2008 crisis of the Big 3 was gas prices going over $4 a gallon which pushed people away from large SUV’s and trucks which the Big 3 were and still are heavily invested in.

Gas prices are nearing $4 a gallon and people are moving away from gas vehicles all together. Neither of which the Big 3 are prepared for. But Tesla is.

Breaking Point

I think the Cybertruck is going to be the death of the Big 3. Its going to turn heads. When people start comparing electric trucks they will see the Cybertruck specs and get it.

Its bad ass. Its incredibly utilitarian. The tri-motor version will be faster than a Porsche. Bullet proof windows. Estimated 500 miles of range.

Frame and body are made out of stainless steel. Won’t scratch. Won’t rust. Kind of like how a 40 year old Delorean still looks brand new.

Cybertruck would be the truck you take to Mars.

If Tesla fulfills their promises the Cybertruck will be passed down from generation to generation.

There are 1.2 million reservations for the Cybertruck with plans to start production in 2023 and build 300,000 a year. If all 1.2 million orders are kept Tesla will sell everyone made til 2028.

GM and Chrysler are in trouble.

Especially Chrysler. They won’t have their first EV til 2025.

On Dec 1st, 2021 Stellantis (Chrysler) CEO Carlos Tavares said the costs to go EV are “beyond the limits” of what the auto industry can sustain.

He has no problem though making $30k in profits building the $88,000 Grand Wagoneer that gets 15 mpg. Even though they knew about Tesla a decade ago.

GM CEO Mary Barra said in 2018 that they would have 20 electric models by 2023. They have five. Only two (Bolt and Hummer) that you can buy in 2022. Other three start production in 2023.

What they are saying and what they are capable of doing are not the same. They are lying.

Hopefully the Ford E-Transit, GM’s Brightdrop, and eventual electric Ram Promaster sell so well on the commercial side (Tesla currently doesn’t have vans) that it keeps the companies afloat to fund the domestic side. But damn. They are gonna have to start cranking them out.

What About Local Governments?

I don’t think my fellow Metro Detroiters understand how tied into gas powered cars our local economy is. Just one of the Big 3 going down will crush local governments budgets.

Half of Detroiters in 2018 weren’t paying property taxes.

Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb have some of the highest property tax rates in the US.

Detroit has the fourth highest residential and highest commercial property tax rates of any U.S city.

In July 2023 the City of Detroit will have to start making annual pension payments of $202 million (20% of their budget). Apart of Detroit’s 2013 bankruptcy case the city was given a decade off from those payments.

Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb have $1 Billion in unfunded retiree benefits. Most cities in MD are only 50% funded.

Parking

Detroit Parking Department brings in $16.9 million annually from tickets, meters, and fines.

Royal Oak estimates $12.3 million over five years.

Birmingham brought in $6.7 million annually pre-Covid ($3.8 million during).

All cities parking revenues drop to $0 with Robotaxis.

Property Taxes and Debt

Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne County are all forecasting property values to go up (might be true with inflation) for the next three years while simultaneously having expenses go up.

They also have some serious debt. Macomb at $243 million. Wayne at $3.9 billion. Oakland at $633 million.

City of Warren has $550 million. City of Sterling Heights has $502 million. I couldn’t figure out Detroit’s budget. It looks like $1 Billion.

Most shocking was my little 1.47 sq. mile City of Huntington Woods with $50 million.

There are 132 cities in the tri-county area. Huntington Woods is one of the smallest.

Lets say the other 128 have $50 Million each. That’s $6.4 Billion.

Add that to the four cities above and you get $8.507 Billion.

Add that to the counties debts and you get $13,283,000,000.

Again, what happens if 50,000 homes go up for sale due to job losses? Or 10,000?

Look at the taxable property values GM and Chrysler paid on in 2019 versus 2009 in Warren.

What happens if the City of Warren loses their #1 and #3 property taxpayers? Is Sterling Heights with multiple Big 3 factories in the same boat?

Act 51

In 1951 the State of Michigan passed Act 51 which created the Michigan Transportation Fund. Its two primary sources of revenue are fuel taxes and vehicle registrations. Money is distributed to municipalities to maintain the roads. 1/3rd of the $3.4 Billion comes from Metro Detroit.

Estimates from the State Of Michigan are that each municipality will receive more over the next three years. Probably true with inflation.

But gasoline and diesel taxes are going to be closer to $0 by 2030 then the $1.4 Billion they bring in now as electric cars and the Tesla Semi hit the road.

The $95 million from used car sales tax will fall off a cliff when Robotaxis hit the road. There will be zero reason to buy a used car at that point.

$2.345 Billion gone.

Which leaves us Vehicle Registration, Income and Sales Taxes, and Weed.

Quick. Everyone get high!!

Where is that $2.345 Billion going to come from?

And remember. We need $3.4 Billion plus road millages (my city has 5) on property taxes to maintain the current shitty roads in Michigan. What is that? $10 Billion?

$625 Million of the $1.1 Billion sales tax on gas goes to public schools. (Proposal A moved a large portion of public schools property tax revenue to the sales tax.)

Where is the $625 million for the schools coming from when the gas tax goes to $0 by 2030?

Michigan added a registration surtax of $135 for electric vehicles to make up for the gas tax not paid. Does that become $1000 in a couple of years?

Do income taxes double? Do we make weed taxes…higher?

Do they dare implement a vehicle mileage tax along along with the others?

Do they eliminate the mileage write off on taxes and use the mileage you provided to tax you?

Act 51, unfortunately, has created a dependency on government.

Much like nearly every government program ever created it starts out with good intentions and ends up being a colossal financial disaster.

Governments do not build roads. Governments finance roads. They hire a private contractor to build the roads. And add a little on top of that financing to pay themselves nice salaries for doing a job well done.

Back to Huntington Woods. Pg. 67.

90% of my cities road revenue comes from Act 51. In the past decade we’ve had five road millages passed because Act 51 didn’t provide enough funding. I spoke out against one in 2020.

Act 51 represented 10+% of road funds for most cities I looked at.

By law, my city, as of today, has raised taxes as high as it legally can forever. The only legal way it can have another millage is if property values go up.

We are a “no growth” city. Its been built out since the 70s. There are no commercial industries to levy taxes on.

Which is what Sterling Heights, Warren, and Detroit become if one of the Big 3 go under. No growth cities. Those plants become massive liabilities. Like the Packard Plant.

Back to the matter at hand.

Who’s registering vehicles when Robotaxis come around? I’m not.

Who’s registering cars if 96k people lose their jobs? Who’s getting high?

Unfortunately we are not getting Robotaxis the same time as electric vehicles. Instead of 10 cars doing 10k miles a year we would have 1 car doing 100k miles a year. Roads would last longer.

On Jan 1st, 2022 the gas tax in Michigan will increase annually according to the rate of inflation. Noticed any inflation lately?

The rising cost of gas will force people to electric cars sooner. Tesla is waiting for them.

The amount of Tesla’s in my city has doubled over the past three years. There’s at least 8.

There’s one Ford Mach-E. And one Rivian truck owned by an employee.

Its right there. I see it everyday. This is going to happen.

Area Of Concern

When reading through City and County budgets there was not one mention of gas usage going down. Or the impact of electric cars. Or Robotaxis. Or the Big 3 possibly failing.

They do not see what’s coming.

I see zero scenarios where the Big 3 gain market share.

I see zero scenarios where the Big 3 stop losing market share.

I see zero scenarios where city and county governments in Metro Detroit do not start taking financial hits in 2024 because of what Tesla has started.

You’ll have to excuse me if I missed something. Some county and city budgets were 200+ pages long. I focused on summaries, forecasts, debts, and auto related items.

All I’m doing is sticking a shovel in the dirt. What I’m seeing from the surface is not good.

It would be different if it was one factory making $55 DVD players. But we’re talking about dozens of gigantic factories from some of the worlds largest corporations located within 70 miles of each other building $55,000 cars.

Does The Next Recession Start In Metro Detroit?

Ford has $161 Billion in debt.

GM has $110 Billion in debt.

Stellantis has $38 Billion in debt.

Safe to say the parts suppliers in MD have $50 Billion combined in debt.

50,000 homes in MD with $200k mortgages equals $10 Billion in debt.

City and County governments in MD have $13.283 Billion combined in debt.

That’s $382,000,000,000 in debt being serviced from addresses in Metro Detroit.

A cascading effect of missed corporate, residential, commercial, and government debt payments if one of the Big 3 or dozens of large parts suppliers go under.

Wouldn’t that create havoc in the financial markets? Would banks go under?

And this doesn’t include credit card, student loans, car loans, and other debts people in MD have.

A financial shit show.

Perfect Storm

Tens of thousands of people are about to lose their jobs in MD as the Big 3 scramble to keep up with Tesla. At no fault to the employees. This will be on the executives for failing to pivot 100% to electric cars in 2014.

UAW has admitted the shift to electric cars could force 35,000 jobs to go away. They also believe the full transition is decades away. They are wrong.

Its as if the Big 3 and local governments are expecting the switch to electric cars to be this 10+ year process where they will have time to react with small changes. And that the Big 3 will be the ones leading the electric transition so everything will be ok. They are wrong.

Massive revenues lost on gas taxes, business taxes, property taxes, income taxes, sales taxes, and parking fees in every city and county in Metro Detroit.

Every negative thing said about Tesla in the past decade has been wrong.

Three years ago it was “Tesla will be bankrupt by the end of the year”. Tesla is now one of the worlds most valuable companies.

A battle between technology and government is brewing in Metro Detroit.

Bosch is laying off workers and closing factories in Germany that make parts for gas powered cars. Orders are disappearing. Workers are protesting outside Bosch factories.

Remember how the Tesla Model 3 is the best selling vehicle in Europe? Consumer preferences are rapidly trending towards electric cars.

Are Metro Detroiters going to continue supporting socialism when their Mayor or the Governor says they need to raise income, sales, and property taxes to fund roads and schools from the loss of tax revenues?

Or are they going to read The Privatization of Roads & Highways. Or watch School Inc.

And then say. “You messed up. No more taxes. We need something different.”

LOL. We both know you’re going to continue supporting socialism.

“We Didn’t Do Anything Wrong, But Somehow We Lost.”

This is what Nokia CEO Stephen Elop said in 2013 at a press conference. In 2007 Nokia held 51% marketshare of the worlds cell phone business.

What also happened in 2007 was Steve Jobs went on stage and introduced the iPhone. Google followed them that year with the Android operating system.

Nokia did not think anyone would spend $600 on the iPhone when their phone cost $100.

Nokia’s marketshare of the cellphone / smartphone industry in 2013 was 3%.

Nokia went from 51% to basically nothing in six years.

This is what is happening to the auto industry. Especially the Big 3. Everyone guessed wrong.

And because they all guessed wrong they are now playing the biggest game of catch-up in the history of business.

How It Ends…Starts?

The winding down of building gas powered cars is where the Big 3 are most vulnerable. Its because they decided decades ago to outsource parts instead of keeping as many as possible in-house.

By 2024 the Big 3 will have to get on the phone with their 1,785 suppliers in Michigan who supply parts for gas powered cars and tell them that they will no longer be buying parts from them.

Imagine being Gary of “Gary’s Gaskets” who’s company makes one head gasket for the Ford 5.0 motor which go into the F-150 and Mustang.

He gets told that the 2,000,000 head gaskets Ford orders from him a year will drop to 0 by 2025. And per their contract he has to honor warranty work til 2030. Five years after he stops receiving orders.

What are you doing if you’re Gary?

You have one year left of business. You also know you can’t borrow more money from your creditors to expand/grow/start something new as you’d (probably) be committing fraud since you knew orders were about to go away.

Will Ford buy you out since they need your gaskets? Maybe. But then they will have to take on more debt to buy your company.

Thelma and Louise it til the end?

Or declare bankruptcy and say something like “it was a good run.”

What happens if Gary calls it a day?

Hundreds of thousands of F-150s and Mustangs cannot be completed without the head gaskets. The assembly line grinds to a halt as Ford scrambles to get gaskets from someone else while burning through cash reserves.

Same for GM and Chrysler.

It could be something as simple as a $.17 head gasket that topples the Big 3.

1,785 suppliers. Hundreds of necessary parts in a gas powered car.

This is like trying to parallel park cruise ships in a 30 mph wind in a crowded harbor.

Remember, Gary’s been selling 2,000,000 gaskets a year for 20 years. He pays him employees based on those sales. His debt level is based on those numbers. $.17 head gaskets only works at 2,000,000.

Because at 1,000,000 gaskets he would have to double the price of his gasket to $.34 to pay his employees the same wage and to service his debt. And so does the other 1,785 suppliers.

What also just happened at 1,000,000 orders vs 2,000,000 orders for all suppliers? The cost to Ford to build a gas powered F-150 just doubled. Economies of scale (for the first time in a century) are now working against Ford.

And the price of a $50,000 F-150 just went to $100,000. Remember, Ford has the same issues with employees and servicing debt too.

Are you, the customer, going to spend $100,000 on a gas powered F-150 when you could spend $60,000 on a fully loaded Cybertruck. Or even $60,000 on the electric F-150 Lightning?

For $30,000 more you could buy the Tesla Solar Panels and Powerwall with the Cybertruck and save $10k versus the gas powered F-150. And now your house turns into a power plant.

Or Ford never calls Gary. But Gary starts noticing his orders go from 2,000,000 in 2022 to 1,500,000 in 2023, and 500,000 in 2024.

Gary calls Ford and asks him why orders have dropped. They can’t give him a straight answer. Gary realizes the transition to electric cars is happening five years faster than Ford told him.

He declares bankruptcy the next day. Setting off the events above.

My gut tells me this is why the Big 3 say they are going to keep building gas powered cars til 2030. It gives their suppliers time and keeps panic levels low in the cities where the plants are.

And that there is just going to be an event like Black Monday in 1977 in the Steel Valley where 5,000 people were immediately put out of work.

Because of Gary.

Which the Big 3 can then say “we didn’t see the transition to electric cars happening that fast“. Even though they sure as hell did.

The scope of this is mind-boggling.

This is looking like nearly every Detroit Lions game I’ve watched over the past 30 years.

4th quarter. 6:45 to play. Down by 17.

They might score a TD. They might even make a defensive stop and kick a field goal to have a chance to tie it up.

They still lose though. The score might say the Lions kept it close losing by 7.

But everyone watching knows it was over with 6:45 to play.

Not Just Tesla

All car brands are going electric. A race to be #2 is on. With electric cars having fewer parts it makes it easier for new competition to jump in. What happens if Apple gets into the mix?

Arcimoto, Nobe, and Aptera’s electric three wheelers are going to sell.

I’ve been riding my electric bike nearly everyday for five years. Even in the winter. I have over 2200 miles on it. I use it for 90% of my two mile or less trips. There’s 60% life left on the original battery.

I’ve saved over 120 gallons of gas riding it. And not paying gas taxes. Or car registration fees. Or car payments. Or insurance. Or parking. Because of it we’re basically a one car family.

The days of families needing 2, 3, and 4 cars in their driveways are almost over.

Selling cars. Financing cars. Servicing cars. Selling parts.

That’s been the Big 3’s business model for decades.

AC Delco / Motorcraft / Mopar and dealerships are all going away or will be much smaller by 2028.

Remember, electric cars have near zero maintenance and 18 moving parts.

Are you going to spend $50 on a part for your VCR and pay someone $100 to fix it?

No. You’re not. Same goes for gas powered cars by 2026.

“Drive it til the wheels fall off” is going to be replaced with “Drive it til there’s a $1000 service bill”.

So how is the Big 3 going to replace billions of dollars in annual revenue from selling parts and servicing cars? And how are they going to do it fast?

Half of their business model is about to go extinct.

The change from gas to electric needs to happen. I’m all for it.

I eat a liter of exhaust fumes following cars out of the school parking lot on my electric bike after dropping my kids off. It does not taste good.

Transportation is about to change.

Which the Big 3 are not ready for. Nor are local governments.

Politics

50+ years of terrible politics in Metro Detroit with major influence from the UAW and Democrats are about to be officially exposed.

Those who vote for politicians who raise taxes. Those who push hard for every road and school millage to pass. Those who want the zoo, art institute, and other millages added to property taxes.

Your day is approaching in Metro Detroit.

You will finally understand what happens when you run out of other peoples money when your mayor says “As you know. We lost a major employer in the city recently. Because of that we need to double your property taxes.”

Then you will understand. But not until that time. That’s the tragedy of the situation.

Don’t believe me? Huntington Woods for the response. (Pg.29)

Sterling Heights and Warren both mentioned how Proposal A is making it hard to maintain services because they can’t raise taxes to keep up with inflation.

Remember, we are at this point when the Big 3 and suppliers are still around.

You can bet your ass that politicians all over Metro Detroit are looking for ways around Proposal A. When they should instead be saying “We need to eliminate everything besides Police, Fire, Water, and Sewer”.

Even if my free market loving Libertarian utopia were to happen tomorrow property taxes would have to be the same.

Why? Because we still have to pay down the debt. We would get the same property tax bill without the services. And then have to wait for a market to form and then pay for those new services too.

You would think City Council’s who intimately know about Proposal A and the restraints it has on property tax increases would remind their constituents before every State and Federal vote that “If you vote for this person who wants to increase spending they will cause more inflation which increases costs to the city.”

No one seems to notice. No one seems to care. Everything is awesome.

I get this false sense of security from people who live in the suburbs that it “Won’t happen here. Only in Detroit.” The majority of factories and offices that remain for the Big 3 and suppliers are in the suburbs.

The Big 3 were able to hide behind the UAW and Democrats for decades. Chrysler was bailed out twice. GM once.

Not this time.

Tesla Model 3 is #1 American Made car. Ford Mustang is #2. Tesla Model Y is #3.

Tesla’s are more American made than the Big 3 cars.

How on Earth are the Big 3 and UAW going to ask for another bailout when Tesla is cranking out 1.6 million cars a year by the end of 2022?

Biden and the UAW are not helping. He’s a turd. He was a turd as VP. He was a turd as a Senator.

When he went on stage to announce the electric Hummer plant was open and said “GM was leading the way” he was lying his ass off. They are not close to Tesla.

People do not like him. And yet, GM brought him up on stage. Along with the head of the UAW promoting union jobs.

Are they going to thank him when they lose their jobs? His inflationary policies are not helping them.

The 2008 bailouts of GM and Chrysler are still fresh in peoples minds. Ford might get a pass because they didn’t take a bailout.

But people are tired of the pandering from the Democrats and UAW and might get a Tesla on those grounds alone.

I Hope I’m Wrong

I really do. And it was a big waste of time. I apologize if it was.

Please. Go fact check me. Show me what I missed.

Show me where Sandy Munro and Tony Seba are wrong.

Show me where my free market loving Libertarian ass has incorrectly interpreted local government budgets and how the impact from losing these companies, workers, and auto related revenues is not going to make a difference.

Maybe I’m off by 200k people who will be affected and $10 billion in debt in my estimates. Hell. Make it $100 Billion. That still leaves $282,000,000,000 in debt and 571,866 employees in Metro Detroit. Still screwed.

I don’t want this to happen. My life is in Metro Detroit. Things were just starting to show a sliver of hope in Detroit prior to Covid.

But I get the feeling words like layoffs, spin-offs (Ford just did), buyouts, mergers, and bankruptcies are going to be heard more frequently in Metro Detroit.

Every UAW and Metro Detroit municipality retiree should be watching this intensely. There is a strong chance your pension will be $0 by 2030.

I don’t think Detroit has hit rock bottom yet. Which is scary to think. And the suburbs are going to get a taste of it too.

Every metro area in the US is going to benefit immediately from the switch to electric cars and autonomous vehicles except Metro Detroit.

It might happen slower here as there is brand loyalty to the Big 3. And people will wait for their electric cars to be made. But there is zero brand loyalty outside of Michigan.

The only way I see Metro Detroit getting through this quicker is by getting Government out of the way. Voting trends suggest there is little interest in that.

If Sandy Munro and Tony Seba are right then Metro Detroit would be in the middle of a financial shit show by 2025 with a start date in late 2023.

Lets end this on an absolute fact.

If any of this happens. If shit truly does hit the fan.

There is no way in hell the Ford family sells the Detroit Lions.

I mean. Why mess up a perfectly good thing.

When Governor Whitmer signed executive order 2020-17 on March 21st, 2020 it changed my families lives forever. She put my Mom in a wheelchair for the rest of her life.

My family has been forever affected by Covid-19. We, however, are not a statistic. Currently, none of us have had Covid-19. We’re not a case or a death. We don’t fit into a chart. We’re a story that’s not being talked about.

Mom had three intensive surgeries from March 2017 to March 2019 removing meningiomas (non-cancerous tumors) that kept growing around her spine.

After returning home from each surgery she went to an outpatient physical therapy facility twice a week, massages once a week, and acupuncture every other week. Those were vital to her staying out of a wheelchair. Five months after rehabbing from the March 2019 surgery she could scoot around with a walker and drive again.

That Woman From Michigan Shows Up

When Governor Whitmer closed all outpatient occupational therapy, physical therapy, massage, and acupuncture facilities with the executive order it put a halt on Moms recovery.

Three weeks after the order in mid April Mom calls saying she was not getting around well. I went to see her. It was evident as soon as I walked in.

Her Dr. and surgeon tell her to get an MRI. The tumor wasn’t back but vertebrae in her upper back had shifted forward which were now pressing on the spinal cord. Mom was losing feeling in her feet.

Her surgeon wanted to do surgery immediately and fix the hardware he put in a year ago to get Mom’s vertebrae off her spine.

Per Governor Whitmers orders, the board of surgeons had to decide what was and what was not an essential surgery to stay in compliance. Since Mom wasn’t dying she was deemed a non-essential surgery.

Three more weeks went by and the order had not been lifted. It was early May. Mom really started to hunch over. She lost feeling in her feet. Eventually, her surgeon told her to admit herself to the ER as it was the only way to get around Governor Whitmer’s executive order as it was now an emergency. We dropped her off on May 8th. Surgery was done May 10th.

Each surgery elevated the risk of Mom being paralyzed. Mom’s surgeon was hesitant about doing more. If she did nothing, this would kill her.

Surgery went as well as it could. Mom could move her right leg but not her left.

After recovering, she went to the inpatient rehab facility to start all over again. Unfortunately, she started losing feeling in her right leg just a few days later. Her surgeon ordered another test.

On May 28th Mom was back in surgery again to remove the hardware just put in and to add even more.

Mom hasn’t walked since.

Seven total weeks without therapy with three of those weeks waiting for surgery.

Mom believes if she had surgery three weeks earlier when the surgeon was ready but couldn’t operate because of the executive order she would not be in a wheelchair. Nor would the second surgery have been necessary.

Those three weeks made all the difference.

I don’t know if RIM undersold how much our lives were going to change when Mom left rehab but it has not been easy.

Mom had two 24 hour care options when leaving RIM.

Assisted Living – $7,000 a month. Would have to quarantine her first two weeks and two weeks every time she left the place. No visitors. It would be a prison for her.

Homecare – $18,000 a month. One company available. Visitors allowed.

At 69 years of age she went with the “not prison” option. Medicare does not pay for this. Health insurance does not pay for this. Mom’s been paying out of pocket.

We’re $120,000 into this so far. At this rate Mom will be broke within a few years. A lifetime of saving and doing the right things. POOF. GONE.

We’ve had to buy a wheelchair van. Get a medical bed. Build ramps around the house. The stress this has caused for our family is immense. We are extremely fortunate to have my aunts, uncles, and Moms neighbors help out.

And then someone, we still don’t know who, stole her wedding ring. Out of all the things someone could have stolen from the house they had to choose the one thing that still connected Mom to Dad since he passed.

All because of Governor Whitmers executive order. ALL OF IT.

Mom knew paralysis could be in her future. Her chances of getting around with a walker the rest of her life was around 30%. That 30%, however, was stolen from her.

Governor Whitmer sacrificed Mom for the “greater good” or whatever other bullshit lines we’re being fed by Politicians. None of those things are welcomed in a free society. Which we, are not. We are living on the inheritance of freedom.

Every time I see Mom in the wheelchair I think about the executive order. The sequence of events that followed for her. And how it stole all hope from Mom to walk and be independent.

I will be forever bitter to Governor Whitmer.

She has done a terrible job with Covid-19. All that Governor Whitmer should have said back in March when Covid-19 hit is “Its not the role of Government to save you.”

That’s it. And not closed anything. Let businesses decide how they wanted to do things. Let people decide if they want to stay home. Let people decide if they want to wear a mask. Its really that simple.

This would be a completely different story if the physical therapists, masseuse, and acupuncturists said they weren’t seeing anyone because of Covid-19. Or even the surgeon. We would have had to accept it.

Their voices were silenced because of the Governor. They wanted to work but couldn’t due to the threat of losing their licenses and a misdemeanor.

Mom has been rushed to the hospital two times in an ambulance in the middle of the night as her blood pressure is all over the place since she can’t move. Every time she called to tell me she was being picked up I didn’t know if it was going to be the last time we spoke.

If Governor Whitmer would have done her job and protected freedom I wouldn’t be writing this. The story could have still been the same. But she got in the middle of it when she didn’t need to. It will be in my mind forever.

You know what’s embarrassing about me sharing this story?

Its that I’m gonna have to defend everything I said about a politician putting my Mom in a wheelchair for the rest of her life in the comment section. To save us some time I’ve thought about the most common responses I’ve heard about Covid-19 these past nine months.

If We Would Have Only Listened To…

If the lockdowns, quarantines, and executive orders worked then why is my Mom in a wheelchair? Its because they didn’t work.

You may be thinking they were needed because of the stupid people. Remember, you’re a people.

Here’s some people who have been wrong about Covid-19 since day 1.

Me. You. School Board. Fauci. Whitmer. Trump. Biden. CDC. FDA. All Media.

This desire to be right is destroying our country. I’m watching friends of mine act like assholes on social media telling others how right they are and how wrong others are. I don’t even want to call them. All for the desire to be right.

Let me help you. You’re wrong. All the time. Constantly. Me too.

The politicians you are defending do not care about you.

Want to know why? Its because there are no consequences for being wrong.

Do you think Governor Whitmer would have locked anything down if she knew that if just one person died from Covid-19 during lockdown that she would have to suffer the consequences of killing someone?

No. She wouldn’t. Nor would you.

We Had To Keep People Safe

“The society that chooses safety over freedom shall get neither. The society that chooses freedom over safety shall get both.”

How is the Government going to keep you safe when they can’t fix the roads.

The Hospitals Would Have Been Overrun With Covid-19

Do you remember that? This was the main justification for the lockdowns, right?

I knew from the get go I was going to have a hard time accepting the lockdowns on face value.

Its because over the past 14 years I’ve challenged my political beliefs, the media, and societal norms by seeking out opposing views. I’ve read thousands of articles, many books, watched debates and documentaries about economic, social, and political freedom from the Government. I do that for fun.

Within all of that fun there has been a lot about the medical field.

How 50,000 qualified people apply for medical school every year but only 20,000 are taken. How there’s been a nursing shortage since before I graduated college in 2003. How the AMA via the AAMC limits the amount of credited medical schools which keeps tuition high and competition low. How four out of the top six lobby groups are medical field related. There’s so much more.

Of course the hospitals are going to be overrun. You turned away 300,000 people in the last decade who wanted to learn how to be a Doctor. Because less Doctors equals higher salaries.

Of course the Doctors, Nurses, and hospital staff are burning out during Covid-19 from being overworked. There is no one to come off the bench. Could the AMA have spent the $224,000,000 they paid to lobbyists this past decade hiring and training people instead?

Of course there’s not going to be enough beds, gowns, masks, etc. when the American Hospital Association gave $223,000,000 to lobbyists this past decade instead of buying those supplies.

The healthcare industry spent $467,000,000 lobbying Congress in 2020.

THEY ARE THE LARGEST LOBBYIST SECTOR BY FAR!!

Do you see the problem I’m having with any of this?

The healthcare industry is telling us they can’t make the mortgage payment when I know they have a gambling problem. The Casino is covering for them because they are a high roller.

You keep telling us to follow the Science but not to follow the Political Science game you’re also playing.

When you buy lobbyists and play politics you leave yourself up for scrutiny. And because of that I can say the following.

380,000 Americans are dead from Covid-19 because the healthcare industry got caught with their pants down banging politicians.

Including some of your own.

I’m not going down some conspiracy theory rabbit hole. You left the receipts on the desk. I’m merely reading them back to you and asking “Can you explain this?”.

I could also say because we locked down for you that every event that happened from March to today is on you. Schools closing. Millions of people unemployed. Summer riots. Capitol Building shooting. Trump not getting re-elected. Its the Butterfly Effect.

The USA forgot why we locked down. I haven’t. My mind has been stuck in March because I’ve been busy helping my MOM IN A WHEELCHAIR.

Here is the USA. The most prosperous nation in the world. We would have Doctors, Nurses, masks, beds, medicines, and gowns falling out of our assholes like the one million Amazon boxes laying on porches right now filled with shit we don’t need prior to Covid-19 if it weren’t for the links I posted above. And theres so much more.

But we don’t. We’re rationing Doctors. We’re rationing supplies. We’ve been doing it for decades. Rationing happens in socialized medicine. There would be zero reason for any shutdowns if our healthcare industry wasn’t already (not officially) socialized.

(Notice the line item for health insurance on your paycheck that your basically forced to buy. That’s conditioning you to be ok with paying it before some politician (I wonder who) tries to nationalize it.)

I’m watching people complain about our “capitalist” healthcare system in favor of a nationalized one when the thing they are complaining about is the thing they want more of.

Do you see how easy it is to question the justification for lockdowns when I know the healthcare industry and Government are banging. Or to say there would be zero chance of the hospitals being overrun from Covid-19 if they had kept that lobbying money they’ve spent these last 30 years and invested in themselves.

Why does an industry that is going to get $1000s or $100,000s from every US Citizen at some point need to lobby Congress?

Its because they want more for them. Its that simple.

I know I’ll need a Doctor or Nurse at some point. They are invaluable. I know my healthcare worker friends are exhausted. Mom’s surgeon was an artist.

But we need some truth talking up in here. You have the most political baggage of any industry. You just get to hide behind the good deeds you do without question.

It would be comforting to know that when my Doctor gently caresses my nut sack the next time I go in for a physical that his hands are politically clean. Thats all I want.

The decades long politicizing of medicine made Covid-19 a cluster fuck.

All the healthcare industry needs to do to shut idiots like me up is to get that lobbying spending down to $0 and remove those internal regulations.

Are healthcare workers gonna challenge the officers of that patch on their shoulder and demand they stop buying lobbyists? Lets hope so.

If the healthcare industry does not massively overhaul themselves from medical school to the top of the AMA after this is over than they might as well jam a white dick with a red cross on it up every Americans asshole the next time we go in for a physical.

Hundreds of millions of Americans were forced to give up their livelihoods for you and lost their minds. Its not too much to ask.

Trump Needed To Do More

He did travel restrictions. Stopped the export of masks. Fast tracked vaccine development. What more did you want President Trump to do?

Did you want him to round up the Chinese Americans and throw them into concentration camps like we did to the Japanese since Covid-19 came from China?

I’ve been to Auschwitz. I stood in the last remaining gas chamber where over 1 million people were killed. I saw a building full of shoes and suitcases. I saw the jail within the jail.

You never want a politician to do more. Always less. Closer to nothing is best.

That experience is why I vote No on everything and for the candidates who represent maximum freedom for everyone.

I watched Governor Whitmer and her many executive orders take a gigantic step towards the gas chamber with almost zero pushback and massive support.

You may not be inside of those figurative gates yet. My family is. Mom was PUT INTO A WHEELCHAIR because of politics. We’re burning money. Stress levels have never been higher.

What Trump is at fault for is not saying in March that “It isn’t the role of the Government to save you”.

Full Disclosure – I voted Libertarian Jo Jorgensen for President. I’m really into maximum freedom for everyone. And I will continue to stand alone if need be.

My D/R friends both say “That’s cute. But this isn’t the year to vote Libertarian Brad.”

It seems it’s never the year to vote for freedom.

Joe Biden’s Covid-19 Plan Is Better Than Trumps

His thousands of words long plan blows. Remember, closer to zero words is best.

Everything besides “establish and manage a permanent…public health…system” and “spend whatever it takes” has been accomplished by Trump.

He is blatantly telling us he wants to use Covid-19 as a reason to setup Nationalized Healthcare. Read about my cab ride in Northern Ireland as to why you don’t want that.

If Joe Biden says “Mandatory _______” after being sworn in as President that equals a step closer to the gas chamber.

Be careful what you ask for.

“Mama Always Said Death Is Apart Of Life. I Wish It Wasn’t”. – Forrest Gump

When Dad died in 2016 from Pneumonia and the Swine Flu (H1N1) the world didn’t stop.

Nor should it.

People went to work the next day. Kids went to school. No one posted on social media they knew someone who died of a virus that had been around for a decade (H1N1) and the other (pneumonia) for centuries. The world moved on.

Dad had Idiopathic Pulminory Fibrosis. A incurable lung disease. Was given 3 to 5 years to live. He knew he could not afford to get sick due to his weakened lungs. He made it 18 months.

You know what Dad did after being given his death sentence?

He lived.

He played in his old man softball league. He played in his golf league with Mom. He went to Cancun. He played golf with his sons. He drank beers with his brothers. Two days before he went into the hospital he played in his old man volleyball league.

A day later he was on a ventilator. I was there nine out of ten days sitting by his side.

Occasionally his eyes would open and we would make eye contact for fifteen seconds. He couldn’t speak because of the ventilator. Four years later I think Dad’s eyes were telling me he knew it was his time. I was there when he passed.

The hospital didn’t ask us once to wear masks in the ICU. I can only remember a few times seeing a Dr. making the rounds wearing one.

The flu and pneumonia vaccines he took didn’t stop him from getting both.

Mom thinks Dad had been battling pneumonia for a month. Did he catch it from us? A friend? Family member? Did he catch pneumonia outside of the hospital and the swine flu in the hospital? Or vice versa?

Would Dad quarantining himself or wearing a mask give him a few more months? Or years?

Maybe.

What would of happened for sure is he would have missed out on life if he did any of those.

And now I’m watching half of the country be perfectly ok with giving up nine months (and counting) of their lives and blaming the other half. Its sad.

Joe Biden boasts in his plan to combat Covid-19 that “He helped lead the Obama-Biden Administration’s effective response to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.”

One of the viruses Dad died from was H1N1.

That makes two politicians who failed my parents with their virus response.

Putting Things Into Perspective

I know eight people who contracted Covid-19 that were 37 to 68 years old. Symptoms ranged from sniffles to everything. Three went to the hospital and stayed til their fevers broke a day or two later. One stayed for five. Covid-19 kicked some of their asses.

I’m 40. Most of my aunts, uncles, and friends parents are nearing 70. There is a real possibility one of them could get sick and we’d lose one of them. It could be Mom. That happens to people around 70 who get sick. Dad was 65. It sucks.

Death is sad. I miss Dad terribly. I occasionally cry when a memory of him pops into my head. I could use him more now than ever to just sit in a chair and listen to my struggles of being a Dad. But mostly, to take care of Mom.

Watching her body fall apart while raising babies in that time period has me running on emotional fumes. Knowing how a politician put Mom in a wheelchair is not helping.

Covid-19 could take me.

Losing Dad forced me to come to terms with my own mortality. It’s a tough pill to swallow.

And I would still be against everything Governor Whitmer has done.

I’ve been exposed to it by now. I was at the Garth Brooks concert at Ford Field on February 22nd, 2020 with 74,000 other people. There is no possible way Covid-19 wasn’t floating around that evening.

What if one of us gave Covid-19 to Mom? Or her caregivers? Social distancing doesn’t work when it comes to Mom. She needs whatever help we can give her.

This is why I keep coming back to freedom. If Governor Whitmer would not have signed the executive orders Mom could be scooting around with a walker right now. We will never know.

Covid-19 is not a hoax. Its real. People get sick. People have died.

This, however, does not give the Government free reigns to shut down life. At least, not if you want to live in a free society.

It concerns me to see how easily a large portion of the USA just gave up their freedoms in the hope of getting it back. I’m sorry, but every history book ever written will tell you that when a society “bends the knee” as easily as we have they never get it back.

That is, unless there is violence.

Wear a mask. Don’t wear a mask. Take a vaccine. Don’t take a vaccine. I don’t care.

Maximum freedom first. Everything else second. Only after zero people are having their freedoms restrained from Government is Science allowed a seat at the table.

Political Science used regular Science as a political weapon against us. If you do not see it that way by now I highly encourage you to start.

Tell me what I wrote about the Healthcare industry is bullshit. Tell me my eyes are lying to me. But do not tell me my Mom is not essential.

***Update 12-1-22***

Mom passed away on 11-9-22. The last two years were hell for her. Especially the last two months as her body fell apart and the disease progressed.

I think about Governor Whitmer’s executive order all the time. And how it robbed Mom of any chance to walk again. Or another year or two of ok health. I’ll never forget it.

The Costs

Mom spent over $200,000 out of pocket for 24 hour care.

Many Dr. visits. Over a dozen trips to the ER. Many in ambulances. Three separate week long stays in the ICU. Two procedures.

Tricare/Medicare expenses exceeding $300,000.

Medication (pills) prescribed were incredible. She must have been taking 8 different pills a day. I could not believe they call that “Healthcare”.

Even though Mom had 24 hour live in care I had to help the helpers. I really haven’t been able to work as I’ve had to get involved with her finances, the house, going to appointments, etc.

It’s cost me over $100,000 in lost earnings.

Between our family and Taxpayers we are at $600,000 in costs and lost income in two years.

I’ve had family members and friends see the stress this has caused me and say “this would have happened anyways” and to let it go. Each time I asked them for evidence.

There is no evidence because Governor Whitmer destroyed the evidence.

I’ve been asked to give Whitmer a pass. I give her nothing. She’s terrible.

If you want to leave a comment and tell me she’s done a good job there is an ante to play that game with me.

You only need to chop off your legs and write a check to my Mom’s estate for $200,000.

THEN I will listen to you. But not until that time. This is the tragedy of the situation.

This past Monday I did something I have never done in my seven years as a resident of Huntington Woods. I went to a city meeting. Why this time? Something motivated me.

Last week we were in Cancun, Mexico. As we do before any trip we put a hold on our mail and have it delivered the day we get back which was last Saturday.

As I start going through the mail, I have a notice from the Oakland County Assessors office saying they are raising my property taxes $91 this year. How lucky am I that my property has appreciated in value!!

And the very next piece of mail was a flyer from the city saying that on March 10th the city will be voting on the Fire Fighters and Police Officers Retirement Act (aka Public Act 345) which authorizes the creation of a millage and thus new funding source for Police and Fire Fighter retirements.

As I read through the pamphlet I get to the point where if passed what the first year tax bill impacts would be. I’m looking at $400 immediately. Welcome back Brad. That’s another $491 being added to my large summer tax bill in four months. That made me sad.

When we moved into Huntington Woods in 2012 our yearly property taxes were $4582. If passed they would be $5500. A 20% increase. They’re $5009 now.

An informational meeting on Monday was scheduled to talk about it. I decided last minute to go. I felt I understood the pamphlet and was voting no already but I wanted to hear what the city, consultants, and my neighbors had to say.

Over the next 45 minutes we were told from a Pavement Engineer that the roads within the city are rated poorly. And if we dont raise money to address it now, every $1 spent to prevent them falling apart would now be $4-$5. Basically, we can maintain them with a little more money now or its going to be a complete tear down and rebuild which is expensive.

Open For Questions

After the presentation my neighbors started asking questions. Ranging from “we should make roads like how they do in Arizona or Wisconsin” to “the road they fixed in front of my house 4 years ago is already destroyed”.

Then the money questions started coming in. Our city is populated with very mature residents. Out of the 70-ish residents at the meeting I guess there was three other people under the age of 50 (I’m 39.5). Many said “I live on a fixed income and if this goes through it will raise my taxes $400 a year. At that rate I will be priced out of the neighborhood I’ve lived in for 30+ years.”

I was thinking the same thing. We wouldn’t move into Huntington Woods right now. We lucked into buying our home in 2012 for $225k when the real estate market was at its absolute bottom. It was recently appraised for $354k. Yes, we’ve put some money into the house to bring up the value but between the price and taxes we would look elsewhere. And mind you, we have a 1400 sq ft home. Its not big.

The community stays. A large number of people on my street have been here for 20+ years. And because of how long they’ve been here they continue to pay rates under Proposal A. They are not paying property taxes on new values because of it. Stated differently, a large number of residents (50%?) are paying about 65% of the amount in property taxes as new residents. And its putting a strain on the budget.

Something Is Missing

As residents asked questions, the city officials, pavement engineer, and other consultants responded, an uneasiness started to come over me. Something didn’t feel right. Listened to one of my neighbors say his current property tax bill of $13k a year (which got a gasp) would jump to $14k if passed. On and on it went for another 45 minutes.

And then it hit me. The entire time I’ve been sitting here I have not heard one solution on how to address the problem that doesn’t involve raising taxes. Not one.

I started thinking. And thinking. I blanked out in the back row for ten minutes in my own thoughts while more people voiced their concern or approval.

I Raised My Hand

The meeting was ninety minutes in. How can I leave this meeting without asking the question banging around in my head. Because I had not heard anyone from the city or the consultants mention it.

So there I go, up to the podium. Nervous as to what my neighbors were going to say to my comment. And I said this: (Starts at 1:34:20)

Did you see some eye rolls? Did you see some of my neighbors squirm?

That’s right. I asked the Pavement Engineer (Cheryl Gregory) what their estimates would be if the City Of Huntington Woods would ban all cars expect for commercial vehicles.

Do you know where the eye rolls and squirms come from? They come from 10, 20, 30+ years of Marketing from Ford, GM, and Chrysler conditioning us to believe we need a car to make our lives better. And how cars represent freedom. I just hit them with the “This is your brain on drugs” ad from the 80s. That ad got people talking. It is still referenced today. And that was the intent of my comment. To get people talking.

Earlier in the meeting my neighbor who pays $13k a year in property taxes mentioned that on our summer property tax bill there are line items (I looked up my amounts): 2010 City Street ($94.62), 2012 City Street ($85.75), 2014 City Street ($121.90), and 2017 City Street ($47.47). All road millages passed which currently cost me $349.74 annually. If this passes, 5 of the 18 line items (28%) on the summer tax bill will be road related.

Even though the act is called the Fire Fighters & Police Officers Retirement Act it has very little to do with them. Mostly accounting procedures.

Nearly the entire presentation was about roads. My guess is it is a creative way to make us feel bad about not supporting our officers and people will vote yes based on that alone. Knowing how this will be our fifth time in a decade voting on roads this act should be called the 2020 City Street Millage Act. And this increase of $400 will be nearly four times larger than the previous largest increase. I’m going to be looking at $750 annually for roads in our 1 square mile city. Passing road millages isn’t working. This is the definition of insanity.

We are blaming our houses for the roads by passing millages on our property taxes to pay for them. Its like saying each one of our houses lifted itself off its foundation, put on rollerblades, and went for a scoot down Scotia. I can assure you my house has never done that.

What concerns me the most about Mrs. Gregory’s reply is when she said “No. We didn’t run a scenario like that. It would be up to the city to decide if they’d want us to investigate that”.

That says it all. My guess is I’m the first person in a decade, resident or city official, to walk to the podium and say it. Or even suggest it.

It says a lot about how engrained our car first society is. We couldn’t imagine living without a car. Especially not here in the Motor City. But the cars financial burden on our city, county, and state is putting immense strain on everybody.

I’m about to have my property taxes raised $400 a year by my neighbors who don’t see that its not the roads that are the problem. Its their car and how they use it thats the problem. 100%.

Meeting Adjourned

To my surprise a few residents asked me if I really did ride my bike through the city. I said yes. Told them about my electric bike that I use to get all around the city and Oakland County. If its over 40 degrees and I have to go two miles or less for an errand (Ace Hardware, Westborn, Berkley Post Office, Rackham with golf clubs on my back, Dinner in Royal Oak, etc.) I take the bike. If its over 25 degrees and no wind or snow Ill take my son to Burton Elementary on the bike. Pretty much, my cars stay in the driveway for most trips in and around the city in Spring, Summer, and Fall.

They said they would ride their bikes more through the city if…you know whats coming…they weren’t so afraid of getting hit by a car. Frowned upon to ride on the sidewalk. Dangerous to ride in the street. Theres not much space for the single greatest and most efficient form of personal transportation in history to be ridden.

I talked with a woman (I believe her name was Helga) who was born in Germany and said “I used to take my kids on bike to school. It was faster than my car. And its great exercise.” Of course she’s German. Efficiency is #1 most importance over there.

And then this happened

You’re An Idiot

“As an Engineer. What I just heard you say was the most idiotic thing I’ve ever heard. Asking the city to spend more time and resources on an idiotic idea like yours is stupid. I drive 10-30 miles everyday and how the hell am I going to get around. This isn’t Mackinac Island.”

My new friend butts in. Doesn’t say excuse me. Doesn’t introduce himself. Doesn’t say “You know Brad, what you said hit me in the gut and I need to talk it out with you”. Tells me how smart he is and how dumb I am. Then leaves. He probably should have farted in between Helga and I for good measure. I enjoyed it.

There’s so much we need to discuss with what he said. Which I shall do in letter form.

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Dear New Friend

Thank you for breaking the stereotype that Engineers are not emotional. Your distaste for my idea was well received through your tone and body language. I feel this was a little harsh due to the fact that I asked for forgiveness (“I’m just throwing it out there” and “FOR FUN”) before asking the city if they’d look at banning cars.

I get it. Banning cars would affect you. But this is a community issue. You came to the community meeting for some reason. It would affect me too. I have two cars. And my wife drives 12 miles to Detroit everyday for work. We would have to make major adjustments too.

Are you telling me an Engineer doesn’t want to see data? I don’t believe it for a second. You guys love data. Time? It looked like Excel. She probably could have opened up her laptop, dropped the daily traffic count by 90%, and the numbers would have adjusted on the fly right in front of us.

We’re not Mackinac Island. You’re absolutely right. Mackinac Island at 4.35 square miles is nearly 3 times larger than Huntington Woods 1.47 square miles. To think our little city couldn’t survive without cars like Mackinac Island’s no car policy is short sighted. You ever see how happy people are on that island not dodging cars in the streets and talking to people. You know, like neighbors would if they weren’t given the option to hide in their car. I’ve been here for 7 years and its rare seeing neighbors outside talking to each other. I know this, because I see it from the bike. And I mix it up with everybody.

Maybe next time I can get your name and we can talk it out.

Hugs,

Brad

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Its been awhile since I’ve been called an idiot on purpose. Kind of felt good. I challenged somebody’s beliefs so strongly that they went out of their way to tell me how smart they were all while not backing it up with data to explain to me why I am an idiot.

I know what he’s saying. Which is, we live in Metro Detroit where there is no public transportation. Huntington Woods could be Berkley or Oak Park for all purposes. No one works in Huntington Woods. So how the hell are we supposed to get around without a car you jackass. And I would fully agree. Except for the jackass part.

Later On

Back at home I thought about what I said and other things I noticed. I started thinking about things I wish I would have said. Mind you, I didn’t decide to go until 20 minutes before the meeting started so I wasn’t prepared.

You can’t see it in the video but when I asked Mrs. Gregory (Pavement Engineer) about banning cars she smiled. And I wish I would have stopped and asked her why. Two things popped into my head.

What I said was hilarious to her. Look at this guy. He’s hilarious. Ban cars? He’s funny.

Orrrrrrrrrr. She knows that after 30 years of being a Civil Engineer designing highways, assessing and planning infrastructure, traffic planning, etc. she knows what I said is 100% the only solution. Or at worst, the best solution. And she knows that there is nothing wrong with the roads and how they are built. Stated differently, the roads have never been built better.

And if we were to play Family Feud with the survey question being “We asked 100 Civil Engineers what is the leading factor in asphalt road deterioration” and I hit the buzzer replying with “Heavy Traffic“…Survey Sayyssss…ding…#1 answer – 97 points. #2. Water – 2 points #3. Detroit Lions (they always mess something up) 1 point.

But no one wants to hear that. And finally someone like me gets it. And says, no, its not the roads, its the gigantic cars we buy and how we use them that are the problem. Something she might have been saying in private for years. And it made her smile.

I really want it to be orrrrrrr. I really do. I put myself out there, got some eye rolls, gasps, and was called an idiot. Its cool. I knew it was coming.

Who’s To Blame?

I really wish I would have been better prepared at the meeting and spent some time researching this a little more. The best case I found on the road debate was on Urban Fort Collins when they compared which road users put the greatest demands on tax dollars. The chart below says it all.

It would take 17,059 trips by bike to equal the damage caused by an average car. My 2004 F150 weighs 5500 pounds. Same as a Chevy Tahoe. It would take 60,979 trips by bike to equal the damage from one trip in my truck.

“So let’s talk about this in terms of taxes. For the sake of argument, let’s say that every 1,000 miles traveled in an average sized car equals $1’s worth of damage to the road that will have to come out of City coffers for repair work. A bicyclist would have to travel over 17 million miles to cause the same $1’s worth of damage.  Or another way to look at that, for the $1’s worth of damage that a car does to a road, a bicycle, traveling the same distance on the same road, would perpetrate $0.0005862 worth of damage. That’s about a tenth of a ha’penny.”

http://urbanfortcollins.com/greatest-demand-on-tax-dollars/

Mayor Pro Tem Joe Rozell said in the meeting that the #1 email he gets from residents is about the roads. I would start replying with “Dear HW Resident – Yes, the roads need to be fixed. But we have finally determined that the problem isn’t the roads. In fact, they have never been built better. The problem is in fact your car and how you use it within the city.” Send.

We need to go all JFK on ourselves. Ask not what Huntington Woods can do for you – ask what you can do for Huntington Woods.

If This Passes

And I know it will. My neighbors love passing things. I dont think anything has ever not passed. Even with me voting No on 100% of anything that involves raising taxes over the last 7 years. I’m like 0-7. But what must happen after this is the city must enact a car usage fee.

When this passes, roads, stupid roads, will represent 20% of my property taxes. We’re not talking about water and sewer. Roads. Stupid roads. I mean, look at them. Their entire purpose in life is to lay around, do nothing, look ugly, and take a beating.

We Need To Treat The Roads Like The Water

One of my neighbors lives by herself. This past spring we were chatting over the fence and we got on the topic of water bills. We told each other what our water bills were. Mine was 3x as much as hers. Can you guess why? That’s right. Its me, my wife, and my two young kids. We both pay the same water rates but I use 3x as much water so I pay 3x as much.

My same neighbor has a Chevy Malibu. I have a 2004 Ford F150 and a 2019 Ford Fusion Hybrid in my driveway. Here I am deteriorating the city’s roads 3.5x faster with my two vehicles and yet we both pay the same rates to use them. And so does my neighbor around the corner who has five cars. Three of which are large SUVs and two very sweet exotic sports cars.

That’s incredibly unfair to her. She assumes so much more of the roads financial burden of me and my two vehicles and our other neighbors five vehicles. SO MUCH MORE. Wildly unfair. This needs to change. We need to start looking at the roads the same way we look at the water. You take 27 showers a day – you’re gonna pay more. You have five vehicles – you’re gonna pay more.

We Need To Make It Hurt To Own A Car

I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say zero of my neighbors want to ban cars. I get it. But we’re done blaming the roads. They’re not the problem. And we’re not going to vote on anything named (Year) City Street Millage ever again. We’re done with that. This is what I propose.

2020 Car Problem Act

Its been determined that our roads are not at fault in the city. It is in fact the citizens cars and how they use them that are causing the roads to deteriorate at increased rates. What the Car Problem Act does is it authorizes the city to contact the Secretary Of State semi-annually and allows them to get a record of every car registered to each address in the city limits. Upon receiving the registrations the city will be enforcing a car usage fee as follows.

1st Car- $100. 2nd Car – $200. 3rd Car – $300. 4th Car – $400. 5th Car – $500

In addition to car usage fees there will be a car weight fee. Its been determined by our civil engineer that the average weighted vehicle in the city is equivalent to a Ford Edge (I’m guessing) at 4000 pounds. At that weight we can maintain the roads but will not be able to get ahead of them deteriorating. Our civil engineer determined if the city’s average weighted vehicle dropped down to 3500 pounds (a nicely optioned Ford Escape) the 500 pounds in difference would double the life span (I’m guessing) of our roads and allow us to get ahead of fixing the roads and pay off old millages. The car weight fee is $5 for every 100 pounds over 3500 pounds.

With 2400 houses in the city with estimates of 2 Ford Edge’s per household we estimate the city would bring in the following.

1st Car – $100. 2nd Car – $200 = $300 per household.

1000 pounds overweight total for both cars/ 100 = 10 units x $5 = $50.

$350 per household x 2400 houses = $840,000 in new annual car usage fees.

At that estimated rate it would cover the $166k the city currently spends on annual road maintenance costs plus the additional $234k needed immediately to get our roads out of the Poor category. The remaining $440k ($840k – $400k for repairs) will immediately be used on all city roads to get our OCI (Overall Condition Index) from its current poor rating of 5.03 to an excellent rating of 8.2 (just throwing #’s out) as soon as possible.

Upon reaching the 8.2 index the city will go back to normal maintenance costs of $166k until the OCI hits 7.5 upon which time we will spend the necessary funds to get back to 8.2. During the times between 8.2 and 7.5 we will direct all left over funds of $674k ($840k – $166k) towards bulk payments of past City Streets Millages. Its our estimate that we could have all past millages paid off within the next ___ years (12 years?) which in turn would reduce all residents property tax bills.

After those past millages are paid off we will direct half of the car usage fees after maintenance costs as a credit towards residents property tax bills and put the remaining balance in the cities investment account.

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I see no other fair way then my 2020 Car Problem Act. I’m sure my numbers are off in some places and you’ll have to excuse me for that. I did my best to go through the presentation where they showed charts with expenses and estimates. But work with me here.

I would pay: $300 for two cars. 2004 Ford F150 Super Cab weight = 5500 pounds. 2019 Ford Fusion Hybrid weight = 3700 pounds. 5500 + 3700 = 9200 pounds. 9200 – 7000 (two 3500 pound cars) = 2200 pounds overweight / 100 pounds = 22 units x $5 = $110 weight tax.

$300+$110 = $410 Car Problem Tax for me

Let me repeat this internet. I would pay more under my scenario then I would with the millage. Its just $10, but its more.

$410 x 2400 houses = $984,000. I think this is closer to reality than the $840k number above.

And yes, we would make exceptions. Like, the Plumbers and Electricians who park their work van. Maybe 50% off the weight. And no fees at all for our disabled neighbors wheelchair van. For those that don’t have a car maybe a minimum $10 Car Problem Fee as we know UPS, FedEx, and Jets Pizza is visiting their house over the year.

As I brainstormed and typed it out I started to wonder why this sort of thing isn’t already in place. Its wildly fair. Don’t like the fees? Sell a car. Don’t like the weight costs? Sell your Cadillac Escalade and get the Ford Escape. Rent a F150 from Enterprise for that one time a year you go up north for a ski trip.

Outside of the city allowing the roads to be dug up and 400 new houses be built where they used to be (No roads = No road problems) I see no other fair way to address the road problem.

This is the sort of thing I would break my streak of voting no for and vote yes for. Technically I’m not raising my taxes at all. I have the opportunity to get rid of all of my cars and pay nearly $0. I hold 100% POWER of whats in my driveway. Under the current system it doesn’t matter whats in my driveway or even if there is nothing in my driveway and I hold ZERO POWER of the costs.

We have to change peoples car buying and clown car like habits. We need to start looking at the roads the same way we look at the water. As a utility. We need to treat the roads as if they were made out of gold. Do you want to mess up a gold road? Do you want gold flakes scraping off and blowing into the wind as you drive over? If you’re ok with that then you need to pay.

What Is A Vehicle?

**Update 3-6-2020**

I shared this post in the Huntington Woods Facebook group. One of my neighbors got me pretty good. He suggested I should start a Hall & Oates Libertarian band. Well played. That was pretty good.

In his comment though he brought up a good point. Something I missed. Which is why I shared the post. To get people talking. He asked the question “What is a vehicle”. And asked if a horse was a vehicle. Or even if my electric bike was a vehicle. Or motorcycle. Well played.

It has to be yes. We’d have to make up some sort of “comparative road damage” fee chart and charge accordingly. Like, $.25 a year for a bike. $3 for a moped. $5 for a motorcycle. $10 for a horse. My gut tells me we’d have to treat any items that are not registered with the Secretary of State like the dog license so the police could identify them in the event of it being lost or stolen.

Legal Mumbo Jumbo

My understanding of the city’s reasoning behind doing this is the city’s charter has millage caps for things like the roads. If they can make the retirement obligations into a line item and not apart of the general fund then it frees up the cap again which they can now use on the roads. At least that’s how I understand it. All millages must be voted on.

I’m curious about Fees. I couldn’t find anything saying the city couldn’t just introduce “Driveway Fees” without a vote by residents. Similar to the city’s 25 different fees they can charge a homeowner for things they do to their property. My favorite being the $925 Pool Demolition fee. The city might be able to get around a vote all together on my 2020 Car Problem Act.

Deep Thoughts

**Update 3-7-2020** – After sharing the post on the Huntington Woods Facebook Group, reading neighbors comments, and looking at the pamphlet again I have more questions.

What happens after this passes? It moves the retirement obligations into a separate millage and frees up money in the general budget. Ok. Fine. The pamphlet says $800k would move off the general budget and free that money up for the $565k increase in road expenses.

What about an economic downturn? We bought our house 8 years ago for $125k less than what I could sell it for today. What if it drops back down to that in two years? My property taxes would (should) drop 20%. Where’s the money going to come from now? The retirement fund would be taken care of but what about the city’s budget? Thats a huge hit.

The city is admitting in the pamphlet that we are up against city charter caps today. Think about that. As I understand that, there is no room to raise taxes (at least on the roads) for as long as Huntington Woods is a city. Like, forever. Unless there is a charter amendment or something. How I interpret that is “we’ve taxed ourselves as much as we can tax ourselves.” We are in “alternative strategy” mode right now. That’s not good.

This millage frees the budget up now. But what about in two years when the other roads that are not included in the proposal go from poor to a complete rebuild. Are we going to be in the same spot? Stated differently, we tax ourselves now to open up an opportunity to tax ourselves in the future.

The pamphlet says they plan to get the roads up to “good” within the first three years. I don’t doubt that. But there were neighbors at the meeting that said the road that was fixed in front of their house four years ago is already destroyed.

My gut is telling me that all this does is kick the can down the road. No pun intended. Roads fall apart. Costs go up. Electric cars are about to be everywhere and they are heavier than gas cars. I see Tesla’s in our city already. If they didn’t run a scenario with banning cars then I doubt they ran a scenario with everybody owning an electric car. A Tesla Model S weighs nearly 5000 pounds. Thats almost as much as my truck. The Tesla Model 3 weighs 4000 pounds. The average weighted vehicle is pacing to go up even in smaller cars.

I get this feeling that I am going to be receiving a pamphlet in the mail within the next three years saying how the city wants to raise the millage cap back up to the max (where we’re at now) so they can fix the roads again. Which will pass again.

What happens after that? Like, in six years when the roads will need to be fixed again. But we are capped out again and there are no “alternative strategies” left?

That meeting won’t be at City Hall. It will be at the Rec Center because its not going to have 70 people there. Its going to have 700 people. Because the city is going to say “to fix the roads we are going to have to close the rec center, the pool, the library, etc.” They said at the meeting how they’ve made cuts across the board already. Think about that. I would hate to be on city council and leading that meeting.

At some point we will have to address our cars. Because the only reason we have the roads is for the cars.

I’m A Firm No

I was a no before going to the meeting. I’m a firm no now. I vote no on everything because I cant picture myself walking around the backyard this summer with a beer in my hand chatting up my neighbors over the fence and have to respond when they say “did you see your summer tax bill go up $400.”

I couldn’t look them in the face and say I voted yes. Maybe they could. But the first feeling I get is how incredibly rude of me to take $400 out of their pockets to buy asphalt when recent history tells me we are going to be having the same discussion in two years. There are 30 houses on my street. That’s $12,000 on roads. All because I wouldn’t change my car driving or car purchasing habits.

I just don’t like adding more costs to property tax bills. Especially ones that could be handled separately. If this passes, there will be 400 to 500 more reasons for a visit from the Oakland County Sheriff if you don’t pay your house usage fees (property taxes). That’s what happens if you do not pay your house usage fees. You are removed from your property by the Sheriff. I prefer giving them the least possible amount of reasons.

This isn’t me hating on cars. I like cars. I grew up in Metro Detroit. Its apart of me. Old Top Gear and the Grand Tour are my favorite TV shows. My Dad worked for Ford. My Uncles worked for GM. I cant deny though that its the car thats causing so many problems in our state.

Its a lose lose situation for me here in Huntington Woods. We need public transportation in Metro Detroit desperately. I grew up in Sterling Heights. I know what its like to have to drive everywhere. We decided to live in this area so we wouldn’t have to use a car as much. Or at least be close to jobs, airport, and entertainment so we wouldn’t spend an hour driving to everything.

But I’ve voted No on the Regional Transit Authority Plan for SE Michigan because if I vote yes I’m going to raise my taxes hundreds of dollars a year for that all while having to take my chances on future road millage increases which recent history is showing its a near certainty.

If I’m on the City Commission I am tabling this vote and looking into “The Brad Line” and the “2020 Car Problem Act”. The way I see it is “The Brad Line” would be a goal. And what the 2020 Car Problem Act does is end the debate. Each property owner now has a decision as to how much financial burden they are going to assume to use the city’s roads. There will hopefully never be a need for a meeting or emails sent to city officials about the roads ever again.

I’m sure I’m missing some items in my projections but I see no other way. It has to hurt to own a car in Huntington Woods.

Before you blast me in the comment section fellow resident I want you to remember that I am asking you to work with me. I’m brainstorming. Something I saw zero of at the meeting and zero of in the suggestion slide in the presentation from the city’s brainstorming committee. Our Mayor is for passing the act and suggests $500 is not a lot of money. He’s right. ITS A TON OF MONEY!!!

Giving one more dollar to road funding without brainstorming solutions that do not involve raising taxes or directing the roads financial burden to each individual household is equivalent to taking all the money that the act and new bond would raise, calling up the MGM Sports Book in Las Vegas and putting it all on the Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl. “Ummmm yes, we will gladly accept your bet”.

Now about those Fire Fighters and Police Officers…